Saturday, July 29, 2017

Making it easy to understand Indian budget 2017

Understanding any government budget can be daunting as the numbers involved are huge. Not only the numbers are so large, they are often presented with reference to different big numbers. For example, sometimes one number is reported as percentage of GDP (gross domestic product i.e. total output of a country in a year)and another number as either percentage of government expense or percentage of government revenue. I have decided to take these numbers as percentage of adjusted union budget. I am avoiding reference to the GDP as government only has control over the budget; GDP is not within its control. In order to prepare adjusted union budget, I have added back the state’s share of the union taxes which the budget subtracts as I thought adding it back will provide a better picture. So the total budget amount is Rs. 27 lakhs, 74 thousand 228 crores out of which 6 Lakhs 74 thousand 565 crores is states share which union budget excludes. Apologies for such large numbers, I promise I will not provide any such large number going forward at least in this post.


In the interest of understanding, I would try to avoid the exact numbers, rather I would round off to the nearest  whole number. Once we get the hang of the quantum of the amounts, we could always refer to the budget document For exact numbers. For more details refer to DISBURSEMENTS and RECEIPTS sheets of STATEMENT I - CONSOLIDATED FUND OF INDIA - REVENUE ACCOUNT for union Budget 2017.


Note: This post does not consider state’s revenue and expenses which are even larger than the union budget in aggregate. I will provide consolidated details in my next post.


So let us get started and consider as if the total union budget size is 100 rupees, then various expenses and income would be as under.


Starting with the government expenses, out of 100 rupees, 34 rupees are allocated for states and union territories, 25.5 for economic services, 19 for repayment of debt servicing, 16 for general services minus debt servicing, and 5.5 rupees for social services.


Going further about the details of the expenses: Out of 34 rupees allocated for states and union territories, 25 rupees are state’s share of the union taxes and 9 rupees are other grants for states and union territories. 19 rupees have to be set aside for repayment of the loan that the government takes every year to cover budget shortfall. That leaves the government with 47 rupees.


Out of 47 rupees, 31 rupees are allocated for social and economic services and 16 rupees are allocated for general services. Breaking down 5.5 rupees for social services, we find that 3 rupees are allocated for education and 2.5 rupees are allocated for other social services. Drilling down in to 25.5 rupees for economic services, we find that 7 rupees are allocated for agriculture, 2 rupees for rural development and irrigation, 7.5 rupees for transport including rail, shipping, road etc., 2.5 rupees for industry and minerals, 2 rupees for energy including petroleum, 1.5 for special area program for north east, 1 rupee for communication, 80 paisa for science and technology, and 70 paisa for general economic services.


Out of 16 rupees spent on general services, 6.5 rupees are allocated for defense, 5.5 rupees for pensions, 3 rupees for administrative services which includes police, 40 paisa for tax collection, and 30 paisa for organs of state which includes expense on administration of justice; elections; Parliament/State/Union Territory Legislatures; President, Vice President/Governor, Administrator of Union Territories; and council of ministers.


Note: the expense on organs of state is so less; even then, we fret a lot about it as it is visible to us. this is an example of availability bias.


Another expense which is noteworthy because we spend so little is administration of justice. As part of organs of state, the expense on judiciary is just 3 paisa. Should we still wonder that it takes 10 – 20 years to decide a case?


Where does the government find money to spend on the above items? First and the foremost source is commodities and service tax (which is now goods and services tax); it contributes 33 rupees. second source is non-tax revenue such as railway , communication, postal service and various other government operations; these contribute 20 rupees. Third source is corporate tax which contributes 19 rupees. And the last source is income tax other than corporate tax (mostly individuals) which contributes 16 rupees. That leaves the government with a shortfall of 12 Rupees, and for which the government borrows money every year. This borrowing has resulted in a debt of 2.5 times the total budget amount. The borrowing and the debt result in high inflation as government has to pay back less if value of money goes down.


The objective of this exercise has been to understand how the government earns money and how it spends. We will get in to more details in the future posts regarding various categories of these expenses.

Saturday, November 07, 2015

Possible origins of words Ganga, Goa, and Nagaland

once in a while in our life we get an opportunity to discover hidden jems. Such an opportunity is often fraught with a risk of being wrong as well because one could land on coincidental occurrence and not find any meaningful connection. I hope what I am going to explain is one such jem.


I think I found origin of 3 Indian names. These are Ganga, Goa, and Naga.


I know what you are thinking? “I know meaning of these words, what have you really discovered?


Let me give a background. I was reading the book Drunk Tank Pink by Adam Alter. The book is about hidden influences about names, labels, symbols and other things in our lives.


In this book, Adam Alter discusses an aboriginal tribe language in Australia known as Guugu Yimithirr. This language does not have words for left, right, behind, and in front, but instead it has words for North, East, South, and West. But what is interesting is names for these directions. Indians might be able to spot the connections of these words after reading the following text.


“In the early 1970s, anthropologist John Haviland discovered an unusual feature of the language spoken by the Guugu Yimithirr people of far north Queensland, in north-eastern Australia. The language had no words for directions like "left", "right", "in front of", or "behind", but instead the Guugu Yimithirr relied on the cardinal directions gungga (north), jiba (south), naga (east), and guwa (west).”


So the word for north in Guugu Yimithirr is Gungga which is quite close to Ganga and could actually be the same because pronunciation of Ganga in Hindi is close to Gungga. So you might ask what that’s got to do with the River Ganges? Gungga could mean a river that starts in the North? I don’t know if another association would have any meaning. The word gunung in Malay language means mountain. Could that be translated to the word Ganga or Gungga over the period of time? Then that word could mean a river that starts in the mountain? It is more plausible to connect a Malay language word to Indian context than Guugu Yimithirr a language of people situated across oceans thousands of miles away. But before we conclude, let’s look at other words.


The word for East in Guugu Yimithirr is Naga. Now is it just a coincidence that Nagaland is towards east of India? My cursory investigation on Google about the word Naga did not get me closer than this. The word Naga is associated with people of mountains, people associated with Nag (a Sanskrit word for snakes), or free men. I am more inclined to choose East, but I did not find any reference for that in my search.


The word for West in Guugu Yimithirr is Guwa. So there is another India centric or let’s call Delhi centric thought. How is it that Goa and Guwa are almost identical in Hindi or may be Sanskrit and Goa is towards west of India? In this case as well, my search on Google did not lead me to any meaning of Goa as being in the west. Meaning of Goa is most likely to be region of Caos (gomanta  in Hindi) as this Wikipedia page about the History of Goa suggests


The word for south in Guugu Yimithirr is Jiba. I could not find any place or river or mountain in south India similar to jiba, but I will keep searching.


So I wonder how come Guugu Yimithirr a language of People in Australia has words that are similar to 3 places in India? Is there a prehistoric connection? Before I conclude, I want to point out that we should not  assume these connections already exist, but I am only suggesting a possibility. There is a difference between a proof and a hypothesis.


Friday, November 06, 2015

Call for Positive Revolution

Fed-up with negativities of politicians and media? Stop paying attention, and they will change. Each one of us can make a difference.
Every one of us understands that media shows “What sells”. There are so many negative soap operas, and within five minutes of watching news, it is evident that it is no longer news, it is selective negativities that have been proven to attract viewership. Politicians are constantly criticizing each other even on things done well to get our attention. Both media and politicians believe that criticizing is easy way to get attention.
There are two facts that are important here. First that media and politicians desperately need our attention and they would do whatever they think would get them that. More viewership means more money for media and more followership means more votes for politicians. Second point we get hooked on to suspense, and easy way to build suspense is to build negativity. And some amount of negativity might be required to build interest as it is done in movies and stories, but constant negativity is like eating sault instead of adding some salt in food.
So if we want a change, we can do a very simple thing. And that is to stop watching anything whenever it starts becoming negative. I am pretty sure within 6 months soap operas would change, and within a year even politicians would change their ways. Unfortunately many TV journalist might lose their job as there way of speaking got them the job in the first place, but many other would get a job and all of us would be better off.
From my discussion with friends and colleagues , I can sense that all of us are looking for some reprieve from constant bombardment of negativity. We seek calm and positive environment, but we pay more attention to negativity. There are so many things that are going well in our world. So Let’s vow to only watch constructive and creative things and avoid negative and destructive things even if we are getting bored. We will soon be rewarded with quality entertainment and better politicians.

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Accessibility: A $ 12 Trillion Opportunity!

Do you know, that total population of people with disabilities in the world is 1.2 billion which is roughly equal to the population of India or China? And only 1 of 10 people with disabilities are able to get gainful employment? For example, employment rate for people with disabilities in India is only 1 out of 200 instead of 1 to 20? How come such a large population could be ignored even though the number of people with disabilities in India is equal to the population of United Kingdom? Even in developed country like United States, labor Force Participation for People with disabilities is  20.7% as against People without disabilities:



Think about it, in United States there are 54 million people with disabilities according to the definition in American's with disabilities act. Which is roughly one sixth the population of United States. If we extrapolate this number for the whole world, roughly the world population of people with disabilities is 4 times the population of United states, that translates to a population around 1.2 billion. The world GDP is nearly 70 trillion, so we can safely calculate that people with disabilities could contribute around 12 trillion worth of output if they are trained well and get accessible products and services. Shouldn't we invest for the potential productivity improvement of such a gargantuan magnitude?


One reason for such a large scale discrimination is that our society is built for majority. Even though 1 in 10 people are left handed, most of the devices can only be operated with right hand. Even though 1 in 10 computer users experience hearing difficulty, many videos and audios do not have captions or transcripts. Even though 1 in 4 computer users experience difficulty with their hands or legs, many computer applications can only be operated with mouse. And even though 1 in 4 computer users experience visual difficulty, most of computer  applications can not be used with a screen reader or a magnifier.


There are similar problems with education. Many people with disabilities do not get quality education. For example, when I was studying in the special school for the blind,  I often didn't get enough course books: for mathematic subject in eighth grade, I got only 1 Braille volume which contained first 2 chapters. Another problem was that mathematics was and is still not taught after 8th grade in special schools for the blind. If this was not enough,  many special schools don't teach English very well and predominant language of education is Hindi. Since in India official work is mostly done in English, teaching in Hindi or other regional languages alone significantly limits ability of people with blindness to get quality jobs.


There are many other products that are not accessible. I have a digital TV at home, but I can not use it as effectively as a person with sight would do because it is not designed to be usable for persons with blindness.

Similarly, washing machines, micro waves, and other equipment for daily use are not accessible. Until recently, if I had to withdraw money, I would need someone's help, in turn compromising on my privacy. Though there are special equipment's available for blind persons, such equipment's are often obsolete and are not available everywhere.


There is a way, and the way is shown by Steve Jobs. Do you know that an iPhone can be used by a blind person, hearing impaired person or a person with mobility difficulties? Steve jobs could easily ignore accessibility in iPhone but he was not a person who would ignore such things. He cared to make it happen or the systems that he had setup at Apple made it happen, but what we learn from him, is to pay attention even for things that may evade an ordinary leader. iPhone has not only transformed mobile industry, but it has also transformed accessibility for persons with disabilities. Steve Jobs and Apple have also shattered my belief that it is impossible for mainstream organizations to build products for persons with disabilities. An iPhone is not only accessible, but it is a model of accessibility among touch screen devices.


Another reason why we should care for these problems is because There is no guaranty that any one of us would not become disabled in the future.

Most of the people with disability acquire disability late in life such as problem with hearing, insufficient vision or problem with motor movements.

Investment in the technology and training for people with disabilities also serves as buying an insurance for people without disabilities. We invest billions for other types of insurance, why can't we invest for productivity improvement of people with disabilities?


So accessibility is not a nice thing to have, it is a human right and essential tool to improve world productivity

Sunday, December 30, 2012

Another solution for controlling crime against women

In information security field, there is a concept known as ethical hacking. An ethical hacker would try to identify vulnerability of a system before someone else does. While further reflecting on problems faced by women, I chanced upon another potential solution which is similar to ethical hacking and I think it can solve women’s safety problems in our society.


There could be a special squad which would have martial arts trained women. These women would move in team, and would move in disguise at vulnerable places. They should appear so vulnerable that anyone with the tendency to rape a woman might attempt to rape them as well. The moment someone attempts, the woman could alert a trigger to call her team and arrest this person.


Such people should be punished for attempt to rape, and the punishment  for attempt to rape should be severe either death penalty or life imprisonment, because if someone could attempt to rape, he could rape as well and that should serve as cleansing of society from rapists. This would also deter potential offenders, as any target could turn out to be special officer in disguise.

Saturday, December 29, 2012

A Potential Solution for the Protection of Women

Rape incidence upset me so much that after any such news, I have never been able to stop thinking about it. I get mad thinking about how the victim would have felt and faced the situation. But this time Damini incidence didn’t trigger any adverse reaction until I got to know about the details of what happened with her. I didn’t think too much about it, but was upset for a long time. I struggled a lot to find some solution to reduce such incidences, and I knew that increasing the punishment may not solve the problem. Then I sort of stopped thinking about it, and thought that perhaps this is the risk that we take for the freedom of enjoying going out.


Then in a eureka moment, I had a solution. What if there is a tiny device embedded in watch, jewelry, belt, or anywhere that is not so obvious but accessible to a woman. When a woman senses danger, she can activate the device quietly, and the device sends SOS message to central server along with its location. The device can use cellular network to send messages and find its location. Once the message is received, PCR van should reach within 5 minutes to the indicated location. The device should also continuously send its location incase the victim is in a vehicle.


At the same time, women should also carry stun devices such as pepper spray to immobilize the attacker so that she can save herself till the time rescue party arrives.


I understand, A major challenge would be the placement of PCR vans so that they can reach anywhere in the city within 5 minutes. But I think our police and government can figure such logistical details.



Friday, September 28, 2012

Immersive leadership: My Thoughts on effective way to manage

Most of us would have experienced leaders who do not have grasp of what is happening in their teams. Often such leaders would be second level or higher level managers. Usually team leads or first level managers would physically be around their teams. The manager who is either at second level or higher would try to distance himself from the Individual contributors But the main trait of such managers is that they primarily depend on impersonal methods such as reports, memos or analytical tools.


The problem with reports and memos or analytical tools is that they filter out great deal of details that are subtle and unstructured. These methods are by nature designed to capture stable information, i.e. one may not be able to write in a report that I could be wrong and I feel that a particular person is incapable. Such judgment requires observation of many instances. Personal involvement allows capturing of subtle details and reach conclusion gradually.


Based on my experience and reflections, I have formulated leadership concept known as immersive leadership. Immersive leadership is about leaders staying in touch with their environment. I have been influenced by two Indian historical figures. One was Mahatma Gandhi and another was Mughal emperor Akbar.


Gandhi could have been the best example of an immersive leader. Gandhi had means to live a comfortable life but he chose to live like a monk. Many of his contemporary leaders lived relatively better lives. But Gandhi decided to live among ordinary Indians and adopted their way of life. So he wore self woven loin cloth and lived a modest life in a hut. In my view, This life provided him 3 strengths. First,  He didn't have to worry about arranging for means of livelihood so he could focus what he wanted to do. Second, he could understand their aspirations as he stayed among them. And third, since he appeared similar to ordinary Indians, he could influence the masses.


Akbar also kept himself immersed among Indian populous. At that time most of Mughal rulers stayed aloof from native Indians. Akbar Choose to break away from that tradition and held regular meetings with scholars of different religions and he stayed in touch with citizen. Another way for Akbar to stay connected with the populous was that he move around in cities in disguise. He realized that many of the policies of Mughal rule caused undue hardships for his citizens and so he modified them. Akbar is considered founder of modern India and during and after 100 years of his rule India was prosperous.


I believe the following 7 things are required in order to be an immersive leader.


1.       commitment to seek truth: Unless leaders do not understand the reality, their actions could be misguided. Reality is shrouded under many layers and discovering it requires commitment. It is easy to mistake opinion as reality. For example, everyone once thought earth is the center of the universe and it took many lives to change that opinion. History is replete with similar other examples. To avoid such problems, leaders must think critically and promote critical thinking in their organizations. Besides critical thinking, leaders should also understand human psychology. Psychology helps leaders to gain in cite into potential pitfalls in our thinking or others thinking.


2.       Commitment to the cause or organization: while we examine our beliefs, we should also be committed to our goals or objectives. without commitment one may find it difficult to get enough energy to stay engaged because obstacles can drain our energy if we are not grounded. And healthy commitment comes by examining what type of person we are and what we value.


3.       Know yourself: In order to understand what we are and what we want, we need to be self aware. Just like truth, self knowledge also does not reveal itself easily. There are many beliefs about ourselves that if refuted, would make us uncomfortable, and to avoid such a feeling our mind decides to ignore such thoughts. Also there are a few biases such as self serving bias and disconfirmation bias that keep us away from learning about ourselves. Self serving bias is our tendency to view our own actions more positively than that of others. In short, developing a capacity for disciplined and honest self-reflection( refer to Avolio) must be developed in order to be an immersive leader.


4.       Develop Willpower: It takes a lot of willpower to stay on a path chosen. In any thing we do, there are distraction like calls of sirens to waver us from our path. According to latest scientific research, Willpower is like muscle. Like a muscle, it can be developed over time with practice and like a muscle, it also gets depleted with use in the short term. So practicing willpower helps to develop it.


5.       Develop Empathy: working effectively with others requires the leaders to understand about others inner lives. This understanding provides clue to the thoughts or feelings of the constituents. Empathy can be developed by regular exposure to others perspectives. Such perspective can be gained through autobiographic  accounts of others.


6.       Communicate effectively: leaders learn about other persons through empathy but they must know how to express their own perspective effectively. Effective communication depends on leader's ability to understand the other persons perspective and leader's skill in coaching.


7.       Shared Vision: Through empathy and communication a Leader becomes fulcrum around whom shared vision develops. Without buy-in, leaders can not get anything done. So leaders develop communication highway with the constituents.


In order to practice immersive leadership, a manager in an organization could practice what is known as management by walking around. Another way could be to also observe how his or her direct reports who are also managers interact with their direct reports. But the most important thing is intention to observe, various techniques are not that important.


I think one barrier in immersive behavior is appearing to be working. Management by walking around means that you are not at your desk and appearing to be not working. Most of the people in organization always appear working even if they don't really have some work.


Another barrier is lack of open mindedness. We all want to be sure about what we think, and with some maturity there are not that many unresolved issues. But that is true for others as well. If I speak as if my word is final, then others feel that I don't value them and their ideas. Perhaps one way to resolve this problem is to believe there are multiple stories about the same issue, and my story is valid and so is the story of others. The idea of single story and multiple stories came from Chimamanda Adichie's ted talk: The danger of a single story. According to her, everyone has multiple stories and we should not form an opinion about others based on single story. I believe every situation also has multiple stories, so try not to believe that there is one universal reality.